|
Feb 18, 2026
|
|
LONG
|
Japan is investing $36 billion into US projects immediately, specifically a massive natural gas facility in Ohio and a crude export terminal in the Gulf of Mexico. This is part of a larger $550B trade deal to avoid tariffs. This is state-directed capital injection into specific US infrastructure assets. The "synthetic diamonds" investment specifically links energy to the semiconductor supply chain. Direct bullish catalyst for US energy infrastructure and critical mineral processors receiving this FDI. Execution delays; the deal requires money to flow within 45 days, which is aggressive. |
Bloomberg Markets
Geneva Diplomacy: US-Iran Hail Progress in Nu...
|
|
Feb 13, 2026
|
|
LONG
|
"Taiwan is pledging to buy $44 billion of U.S. energy." This pledge represents a massive, government-mandated demand injection for US energy exporters. Unlike the vague chip investment promises, the energy purchase commitment is explicitly cited as part of the finalized deal, directly benefiting large-cap US producers and LNG exporters. LONG US Energy majors and exporters to capture the revenue from this $44B commitment. Trump reneging on the deal or imposing new tariffs that void the purchase agreements. |
Bloomberg Markets
Taiwan, US Sign Trade Pact...
|
|
Feb 13, 2026
|
|
LONG
|
The deal includes "commitments from Taiwan to purchase... agricultural products," specifically allowing US meat to enter the market despite opposition from Taiwanese domestic parties. The removal of trade barriers for US meat and explicit purchase commitments expands the total addressable market for US agricultural firms. LONG US Agriculture sector. Domestic political pushback in Taiwan (opposition party concerns) could delay implementation or limit volume. |
Bloomberg Markets
Taiwan, US Sign Trade Pact...
|
|
Feb 13, 2026
|
|
WATCH
|
The finalized document "doesn't detail" the previously announced $500 billion investment ($250B private / $250B gov guarantees) into the US chip sector. Additionally, while general tariffs dropped to 15%, there are "exceptions for tech." The absence of the investment language creates significant uncertainty regarding the financing and speed of TSMC's US expansion. If the loan guarantees are not locked in, capital expenditure plans may be delayed. Furthermore, if "tech" is an exception to the tariff cut, TSM may not benefit from the 15% rate, leaving it exposed to Trump's volatile trade policy. WATCH. The macro setup is fragile; the deal is signed, but the most critical component for the semiconductor sector (the investment capital) is missing. Trump imposes new tariffs (like he threatened South Korea) or the US chip expansion stalls due to lack of funding guarantees. |
Bloomberg Markets
Taiwan, US Sign Trade Pact...
|
|
Feb 13, 2026
|
|
AVOID
|
"Trump also... has been privately weighing this week whether to pull out of the USMCA North American trade pact." Even the rumor of a USMCA withdrawal is toxic for Canadian and Mexican assets, as their economies are heavily integrated with the US. Uncertainty regarding the treaty undermines the investment case for Canadian equities and currency. AVOID Canadian equities and currency exposure until the USMCA threat resolves. Trump reaffirms commitment to USMCA, causing a relief rally. |
Bloomberg Markets
Taiwan, US Sign Trade Pact...
|
|
Feb 13, 2026
|
|
LONG
|
As part of a new trade pact, Taiwan has pledged to buy $44 billion of US energy products. This represents a massive, government-mandated demand injection for US energy producers, securing long-term export volumes. LONG US Energy sector. Implementation delays or political shifts in Taiwan/US relations. |
Bloomberg Markets
How AI Is Proving to Be a Double-Edged Sword ...
|
|
Feb 12, 2026
|
|
WATCH
|
"This leaves everything really in a really precarious position... growing rift within the Republican Party." The combination of a fracturing ruling party (GOP infighting), looming trade wars (Canada, Mexico, Brazil), and a pending Supreme Court case creates a high-uncertainty macro environment. Political instability and trade barriers are generally negative for broad market valuations. Watch for volatility spikes; the "cost of living" anxiety mentioned suggests consumer weakness may already be impacting earnings. The political posturing resolves quickly, or the Supreme Court limits executive trade power, stabilizing the market. |
Bloomberg Markets
US House Votes to End Trump's Canada Tariffs...
|
|
Feb 12, 2026
|
|
SHORT
|
Trump is "very unlikely to sign this legislation" and is reportedly thinking about "pulling out of this deal [USMCA] entirely." While the House vote suggests relief, the reality is a likely veto and an escalation of trade tensions. The threat of total USMCA withdrawal is an existential economic threat to Canada, which relies heavily on US exports. This uncertainty creates significant downside pressure on Canadian equities (EWC) and the Canadian Dollar (FXC). Short Canadian exposure until the USMCA/Tariff threat is resolved. Trump unexpectedly signs the bill or the Supreme Court strips his tariff authority. |
Bloomberg Markets
US House Votes to End Trump's Canada Tariffs...
|
|
Feb 12, 2026
|
|
AVOID
|
A USMCA withdrawal "would really eliminate all the rules of the road of trade in North America and could be a huge upset due to global trading patterns." The automotive sector has the most deeply integrated cross-border supply chains between the US, Canada, and Mexico. Uncertainty regarding the USMCA or persistent tariffs disrupts logistics and raises input costs for legacy automakers, squeezing margins. Avoid North American automakers heavily reliant on cross-border manufacturing. Tariffs are removed, leading to a relief rally in industrial supply chains. |
Bloomberg Markets
US House Votes to End Trump's Canada Tariffs...
|